Texas Senate Race Heats Up as New Poll Reveals Narrow Lead for Democratic Challenger.
A recent Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests that the state's Senate race is far less settled than initially thought, with Democratic challenger James Talarico leading Republican candidate Ken Paxton by a narrow 3-point margin, 51% to 48%.
The poll found that more voters are concerned about Paxton's character than Talarico's extremism, with 59% expressing concern about Paxton's character and 47% worried about Talarico's views. The poll also revealed that Talarico has a significant advantage among extremely motivated and extremely interested voters, with a 6-point lead in both categories.
Independents and Democrats overwhelmingly support Talarico, with 68% of independents and 98% of Democrats backing the Democratic challenger. However, Paxton has the support of White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, and regular worship attenders.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that Paxton has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that tying Talarico to the Democratic Party's far left could be a key strategy for Paxton's campaign.
The poll also found that Trump's favorability rating in Texas has flipped from a 55% favorable rating in 2024 to a 45% favorable rating today, with a net negative rating of -9. Paxton's personal rating is also underwater, with a net negative rating of -6, while Talarico is in positive territory with a net rating of +6.
When it comes to issues, inflation is the top concern for nearly 4 in 10 voters, followed by immigration and healthcare. The poll also found that more voters say they are falling behind financially rather than getting ahead, with a 2-to-1 margin.
The poll for the governor's race shows incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott favored by 1 point over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with Hinojosa having an advantage among extremely motivated and extremely interested voters. Abbott has a net positive personal rating, while Hinojosa is in positive territory by 11 points.
Hispanic voters prefer Talarico by 18 points, with 59% supporting the Democratic challenger and 41% backing Paxton. Hispanic voters are also more concerned about Paxton's character than Talarico's extremism, with a 20-point margin.
The poll was conducted July 23-27, 2026, with a sample of 1,006 Texas registered voters, including an oversample of 296 Hispanic voters. The results have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points for the full sample and ±4 for the Hispanic subgroup.
