Somalia’s opposition coalition is seeking a transitional period led by a chosen council to help the country avoid political scenarios witnessed in Afghanistan when US and allied troops left the country in 2021.
But the path to that certainty is paved with haggling and mediations by diplomat from the US, UK and Türkiye.
On July 27, the Somali Future Council (SFC), one of the opposition groupings, called for a comprehensive political agreement to establish an inclusive Transitional Council, which should oversee Somalia’s constitutional and electoral transition until new national institutions are peacefully renewed. “Somalia’s immediate priority should be a political settlement that restores legitimacy, rebuilds national consensus and safeguards the neutrality of state institutions, including the Somali National Army,” the letter stated, addressed to troop contribution countries of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom).
The letter went to Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda and Egypt all who have foreign troops in Somalia. It was also copied to AU Commission and AU Peace and Security Council. “We (SFC) remain fully committed to a peaceful, negotiated, and Somali-owned settlement, reached through dialogue and compromise rather than unilateral action,” they added, in a supposed dig at President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Mohamud oversaw controversial amendments to the constitution, adding a year in office for both the federal parliament and his term. His critics say those changes lacked sufficient consultations.
President Mohamud argues Somalia should hold elections next year by May and that the polls should be direct, allowing civilians to vote for leaders for the first time in 55 years. Opponents say Somalia is too fragile and have leaned toward the usual indirect polls based on clan-based arrangements.
In June, a high-level security delegation from Türkiye attempted to media in the presence of diplomats from US, UK, UN and EU, all efforts. It ended in vain, largely because Ankara was suspected of playing for the Somali government.
The routine was repeated in July, this time comparing 4 electoral proposals by the Federal Government, Somali Future Council (SFC), Nabad & Nolol (N&N) and National Union Council, meeting similar fate.
Still, no tangible deal has come forth. The Somali Non-State Actors (Sonsa), the largest civil society network in Somalia, proposed the Transitional Constituency-Based Multiparty Electoral Model.
As a measure of compromise, the Chairman of Sonsa Osman Mohydin Shatah told The EastAfrican, “In our model, during the transitional period, temporary safeguards should be established to ensure inclusive representation and prevent particular communities or groups from feeling excluded from the political process.”
Unlike Sonsa, mediators have generally been frustrated that a deal hasn’t been inked yet. Some applied pressure.
On July 1, The United States informed the African Union that it will block future UN logistical support for the Aussom.
Aidarous Hassan, a political analyst in Mogadishu, told The EastAfrican: “For Somalia, this US act amounts to tsunami or a violent volcano, with detrimental effect on security.”
Washington had said it would oppose renewing the UN Support Office in Somalia (Unsos) logistical mandate when it expires at the UN Security Council in December 2026.”
The AU Commission warned its Peace and Security Council via an internal letter that losing this logistical backbone creates severe risks for the operational posture, financing, and sustainment of Aussom troops.
On July 8, 2026, the PSC held its 22nd Informal Consultative Meeting chaired by Uganda, focusing on the future and financing of Aussom.
Subsequently, the Commission of the African Union sent on July 20th an urgent letter to the Somali government, requiring it to designate appropriate representatives to participate in the technical consultations and experts-level meetings in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from July 22 to 24.
In Somalia, end of support for troops and a continual wrangling over elections pose a common threat: Chaos.
Abdirahman Aynte, leader of Xaqsoor political party and a prominent member of SFC, said that Somalia must avoid the Afghanistan scenario. He was referring to the departure of US and allied troops from Afghanistan in 2021, having been there for two decades trying to install democracy. “Former President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani was reading a newspaper at the presidential palace in Kabul when the Taliban started seizing the first towns,” said Aynte, describing the situation then, and accusing authorities of being corrupt.
Former Somali Foreign Minister, Abdisaid Muse Ali, now Chairperson of Lomé Security and Peace Forum, said there was a risk of implosion like Afghanistan, if politicians don’t see sense now. “In Kabul, leaders came to treat foreign troops, donor money and diplomatic backing as permanent foundations of power,” wrote Ali, a former Somalia national security advisor. “Somalia now faces a similar danger. Political leaders act as though external protection; international financing and diplomatic recognition will continue indefinitely.
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Hassan shared his memory with Nation about a decade and half ago.
Somalia has been here before. Before 2011, it ran under a transitional federal government of Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. Incidentally, it was Mohamud who took over when a new constitution was passed via ‘The Kampala Accord.’ “That document contained a roadmap that led to the promulgation of the Provisional Constitution,” said Hassan, referring to the 2012 constitution.
The opposition has suggested talks should go wider than Aussom and consider Somalia’s immediate political future. Kampala will host the next session of Somalia and partners discussing the future.
